Another session

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1628352

I was trying to represent AJ in this hand with my call on the flop and psb on the turn. Alas, this doesn’t work vs a donkey lag calling station who falls in love with his hand. Note to self – don’t try and bluff a calling station lol

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1628397

Ok, this hand put me on serious tilt during and immediately after for obvious reasons.  But now I have calmed down, I will try and analyze the hand objectively street by street:

First of all, villain was an absolute fish and had already sucked out several times. He was a total calling station preflop and his stats were: 46/2/0.41 in other words loose passive.

Preflop: I am dealt AKo in UTG. An excellent hand and one I am obviously raising with. Sometimes I will raise to 5xBB when in ep to charge players behind me a bit extra for having on position on me throughout the hand. With a calling station behind me, there is an added argument for doing this, but my play is still correct and villain is clearly making a mistake by calling with T6 sooted.

Flop: Monotone flop (yuck) but I have the Ace of diamonds and also TPTK. A strong hand and well worth a bet. When villain came back over the top, instead of pausing and thinking about it, I just insta-shoved all-in, thinking my pot equity was > 50 % with my TPTK and nut flush draw. Well, I was wrong surprisingly. Villain is very passive so I should have realised that he is only doing this with a made hand, ie 2 diamonds in his hand. If we accept that assumption, the equity is as follows:

equity win tie pots won pots tied

Hand 0:    30.185%    30.19%    00.00%    10758    0.00 { AdKh }

Hand 1:    69.815%    69.81%    00.00%    24882    0.00 { Any diamond combination}

So my odds of actually getting a diamond on the turn or river are 7-3 against or over 2-1. Villain is obviously playing for stacks, so if we assume villain is all-in on the flop, my pot odds to call would be: 25/21.75 = 1.15

In other words my push on the flop was -ve.

Even though the villain didn’t go all-in on the flop, I was not getting the pot odds to call his raise and see the turn:

I was getting just 2-1 pot odds (14.50/7) to call his raise, and I needed 4.22-1 to make it profitable.

The only reasonable play in this situation would have been for me to flat call the raise on the flop and see a turn. If another diamond came on the turn, villain was never getting away from the hand and I would have got the extra $12.50 from his stack giving me implied pot odds of 27/7.25 ie a bit less than 4-1. If the turn was a blank, villain would have obviously pushed and I would have folded, saving me $12.50

My biggest mistake here was overestimating my equity on the flop.

Awful play by villain obv, but it forced me into actually working out the maths.

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1628623 

Villain had been raising 40% of all hands preflop so it was time for a strong 3-bet. I had nut flush draw and 2 overcards on the flop and so plenty of equity. Villain got what he deserved!

http://www.pokerhand.org/?1628643

This was pretty standard preflop and flop (where I just read his bet as a c-bet) I was lucky on the turn, but I got maximum value from the hand with my huge overbet on the river which is something I’m experimenting with atm.

Session stats:

Number of hands: 502

Net profit/loss: +$24

Winrate: +10.12 ptBB / 100

Bankroll: $726