http://www.pokerhand.org/?1926264
Hmm, There are some things I like and dislike about how I played this hand. I like my call preflop with my suited connectors. There’s a raise from mp and a caller ahead of me. I am on the button with a hand that can flop well. I was pretty sure if I called that one of the blinds would come along too. The prelop raiser was quite taggy and I put him on 88+/AQ/AK.
On the flop, the villain made his c-bet and I was getting just less than 3-1 odds to call. His bet felt a bit weak, kind of half-heartedly protecting his hand, but not really. I felt that 2 high cards (AK/AQ) was more likely than a made hand. I was very tempted to raise this up and semi-bluff with my flush draw, but with a player still to act behind me, decided against it. My call is ok, if I think villain will put more money in the pot on later straights. When he checked to me on the turn, I knew I was now ahead, and felt that AK/AQ was the most likely, but if I bet out he’s just going to fold with the spade scaring him off. I then made a thin value bet on the river to try and get him to look me up.
It worked, but the extra $2 still didn’t justify the call on the flop. Over all, I called $2.50 on the flop and won $8.80 ($4.35 + $2.50 + $2) ie total pot odds of 3.52-1 whereas I would have needed 4.2-1 to make my flop call +EV. Doing the maths, I needed to win at least an extra $3.65 on the turn and river to make my flop call profitable in the long-run. Since villain just had 2 overcards, I doubt he would have called that much.
Is my maths right here ? Is a raise better on this flop ?
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1926409
I nearly had a heart attack here when I got 3 callers preflop. I had to bet this flop but didn’t like betting into 3 loose villains OOP. Luckily 2 of them folded and the other one flat-called. I already had a read on him as a calling station and a flush chaser, so I had every intention of double barrelling the turn. I think I got my bet sizing just right here. When he checked to me on the river, I decided to just check behind too. I’m not getting any more money out of a busted flush draw and I’m only getting called by a better hand there.
http://www.pokerhand.org/?1926470
Villain’s stats: 60/3/0.45 (typical weekend loose passive)
I was pretty lost on this hand from the turn onwards. His flat call to my huuge raise on the flop along with the club on the turn made me think the fish had drawn out on me, and for such a passive player to make a bet like that on the river, begging for a call, I had to be beat. Even getting 7-1 odds to call, I hate paying off the fish. 89, AK, any 2 clubs all have me beat there. Yuck !
6 responses so far ↓
joseffreedom // January 15, 2008 at 3:35 am |
Some quick hand analysis:
Hand 1: I don’t know whether I like a raise on this flop or not, I guess I don’t think it matters all that much. You have almost no 3’s in your range and a couple of jacks, maybe 7-10’s raise to find out where they are, but if you get 3 bet your off your hand. I’d raise sometimes and call sometimes based on opponent and my table image. On the turn you need to bet though for 2 reasons, first you should be betting here with almost any 2 because a flush draw is a large part of your range and so in order to bluff at these pots you need to bet them when you have the goods. Also if another spade comes on the river you lose lots of value and hands. Fine value bet on river, he has you beat only with this slowplayed full-houses, which is almost never.
Hand 2:
Good play on flop and turn but I disagree that you aren’t getting called by worse on river. I think AK, KQ, KJ, K5, K7 might all look you up here. I don’t think there are enough jacks or full houses in his range to not bet.
Hand 3:
Played perfectly, jack on the turn is the worst card in the deck for you. With .45 AF I don’t think there is a reason to call the river bet either. Nice hand.
Good luck at the tables,
T
321Busto // January 20, 2008 at 8:57 pm |
Hey,
In hand one you are making a mistake in how you think about odds a little bit. The key difference is that you need to make that much money against villian’s entire range ON AVERAGE. Essentially, you are easily getting the odds to draw to your flush on the flop. You can win the money in lots of ways, if you miss on the turn and he checks to you, you could decide to bet and take away the pot, sometimes he has AA and you hit and win a big pot. The only thing that makes it a little closer here is its a paired board, so you could hit and lose to a flopped boat, but this also makes it less likely he hit.
Oh just one other thing, if you raise this texture board against a good player (not sure how many of this caliber exist this low), but if you start raising this type of flop texture as a bluff here, then you also should be raising AJ and TT and the like for value here, or sometimes slowplaying big pairs preflop to balance your play. That probably does need to be in the front of your consideration against a lot of players though.
Pipedream // January 30, 2008 at 2:09 am |
Hand 1: Well played, loved everything about it.
Hand 2: I agree with josef that you will get called by many worse hands at this level. AK, KQ, K-10 most likely with 10-10 not being out of the question either. Unfortunately if you bet the river your not getting called by a busted flush, but I still bet the river here.
Hand 3: I hate the way it was played right from the beginning. #1 The villain has a huge range of hands according to his 60% PF play. #2 He’s in late position. #3 He mini-raised and it’s typical with players who stats are similar to his (not to mention I think mini-raising is weak) that they are very weak.
I like raising out of the SB here. Honestly I’m more worried about the guy who limped UTG and I want to get heads up with the fish.
I like the check raise on the flop and there can be many arguments about how to play the turn.
With a TAG style that you play raising out of the blinds is a strong play and shows that you’re serious about the hand. I think you take this down PF more often than not.
Donnie Peters // February 10, 2008 at 1:26 am |
Hey man, just started checking out your blog after I saw it up on in the 2+2 forum sticky.
I’d like to invite you to check out my blog at dpdailygrind.blogspot.com.
Thanks,
Don
Amatay // April 2, 2008 at 7:44 pm |
Gotcha
update btw fishay
doublemeup // April 3, 2008 at 3:15 am |
lol @ Amatay
Yeah you got me lol !
And yeah, I’ll update tomorrow. – I haven’t done so for a while as I seemed to run like poo after my last few updates…lol